Five bold predictions for 2010

College football season is upon us! There's only about an hour left until Southern Miss takes on South Carolina (Go Gamecocks! No, I never said I would be impartial). Anyways, I thought I'd have a little fun and make some predictions about this season. Without further ado, here we go.

1) Boise State will lose at least two games.
Maybe even three. I believe firmly that Virginia Tech will dispatch them unceremoniously this weekend. I also believe that either Oregon State or Idaho will beat them. I used to drink the Boise State kool-aid, but I've since come around.

2) Florida will struggle mightily.
However, they will still be good enough to win the east. Yeah, really going out on a limb there. They've got a lot of young players, especially on defense. These fresh out of high school guys are going to be pushed around by experienced SEC linemen at times. However, I believe that there is enough depth and talent on that side of the ball to keep them fresh enough to compete at a high level week in and week out.


3) An SEC team will not play in the BCS championship game.
First of all, Alabama has lost more than many people realize. Luckily for them, they still have a killer backfield, but they lost playmakers like Terrence Cody, Ronaldo McClain, and Javier Arenas on defense. I also believe that they will loose to LSU, Auburn, or perhaps both.
Florida will probably have at least two loses going into the SEC Championship game. Where I expect them to defeat Alabama. Call me crazy, but I don't think that Urban Meyer loses to the same team twice in a year. Not to mention a young Gator football team will be playing much better in their 13th game of the season as opposed to their fifth game.
That parity will ultimately be the SEC's undoing this season.

4) Nebraska will play for the BCS Championship.
Sticking a gigantic middle finger up at the Big 12, the Huskers will win the Big 12 and the right to play in the BCS national championship game. The defense is stout, and Zac Lee is an experience quarterback. Their toughest game is at home against Texas, followed by their second toughest at Oklahoma State. I expect them to loose another close game to Texas at home before defeating them in the championship game.

5) Ohio State will win the BCS Championship.
Two of their three most difficult games (vs Miami (FL) and Penn State) will be in the Horseshoe. Miami plays... they haven't played very cleanly early in the season the past few years. That said, it could still be interesting, but Ohio State is VERY good defensively and Terelle Pryor will only be smarter with his decision making this year.
Their most difficult game may be against Wisconsin on the road, but we all know how Wisconsin fares when they play other top ranked teams later in the year.
With the SEC playing themselves out of a fifth straight championship, Ohio State will defeat Nebraska in the BCS National Championship game this year.

This weekend's previews: #11 Southern Cal @ #9 Oregon

For as good as everyone says Southern Cal is, they sure play with their backs against the wall a lot of the time. They Trojans are 3-1 in the Pac-10 after suffering a (not entirely unexpected) defeat at the hands of powerhouse (er... 3-5) Washington earlier this year. A loss to the #9 Ducks (4-0 in Pac-10 play, including easily dispatching the same Washinton team) would end the Men of Troy's hopes for winning the Pac-10, playing in the national championship, and probably playing in a BCS bowl.

The BCS Mess, part deux

Last post I talked about a solution to the BCS. Far be it from me though to think everything the whole way though. But fear not- I've fleshed out my solutions, and even provided some (projective) examples based on this season!

Scenario #1 (I.e. the fariest scenario that University Presidents would never endorse)

-The top 12 teams at the conclusion of the regular season get to play in a BCS bowl game

-The top 4 teams in the BCS recieve a bye to the second round

-There are NO automatic bids for BCS conferences

-The Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Peach Bowl and Citrus Bowl will host the first round matchups

-The Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Sugar Bowl, and Fiesta Bowl will host the second round games

-Whichever BCS site last hosted the championship game will not host a semi-final game

-The semi-finals sites will host the teams which it DID NOT host in the second round

-The site of the national championship will rotate as normal

-The playoff will begin on the first Thursday after the conclusion of the regular season

-Games will be held each week until the conclusion of the semi-final round, where the two finals teams will recieve an additonal week for rest and preperation

-The national championship will be played the second Saturday of January

So for instance, this year, the Superdome wouldn't host a semi-final or championship game this year. Dolphins Stadium would host the national championship as scheduled.

Here's an example of how that would look...

Scenario #2 (I.e. a scenario that isn't THAT bad, and may actually have a chance...)

-The six champions of the BCS conferences receive automatic bids

-The four highest ranked BCS conference champs receive first round byes

-The remaining two BCS conference champions will be matched with their first round opponent according to their ranking

-The remaining six playoff spots will be filled by the next six highest ranked teams in the BCS poll, HOWEVER

-Undefeated non-BCS teams ranked above the LOWEST RANKED BCS conference champion receive an automatic bid, taking the place of the lowest ranked non-conference championship teams

-Brackets will be set up using a conventional method, with highest seed facing lowest seed, etc. in the first round, despite the actual ranking of teams (I.e. #1 could play #21, should that #21 team be a BCS conference champion.)

-The Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Sugar Bowl, and Fiesta Bowl will host the second round games
-Whichever BCS site last hosted the championship game will not host a semi-final game
-The semi-finals sites will host the teams which it DID NOT host in the second round
-The site of the national championship will rotate as normal
-The playoff will begin on the first Thursday after the conclusion of the regular season
-Games will be held each week until the conclusion of the semi-final round, where the two finals teams will recieve an additonal week for rest and preperation
-The national championship will be played the second Saturday of January

Under that scenario this year, #13 Cincinnati and (presumably) #15 Boston College would get in, knocking out #12 Ball State and #11 TCU. However, #12 Ball State, being undefeated, would displace the highest automatic "at large" team, #10 Ohio State.

Here's an example of how that would look...

So those are my ideas. I for one would love to see EITHER version, so long as we get a playoff. Too bad this won't happen this year- Am I the only one who would be excited by a Utah vs Florida matchup?

The BCS Mess

The BCS has done it again. After slighting Auburn after an undefeated season a few seasons ago, the BCS has once again shut out a deserving team.
I know that by my own admission I thought OU was more deserving of the bid, but that doesn't change the fact that actual voters, and a good number of other so-called "experts" thought Texas deserved the bid. Texas is a good team, but unfortunately, under this current system, they're SOL.
But Texas isn't the only one who is going to be royally screwed out of a bid. Chances are, even with Oregon State's loss, that Boise State will be left out of a BCS bid, with the directors choosing 10-2 and less-deserving Ohio State to play in a game over them. And while we're at it, Ball State has the potential to be 13-0, ranked in the top 12 of the BCS, and also be shafted.
This is absurd. I've heard the suggestion put forth that since non-BCS conference teams have to finish in the top 12 of the BCS to be considered for a BCS bowl, why not have conference champs adhere to that same criteria? Shouldn't we reward teams for playing well instead of rewarding them because their fan bases will bring in more money?
But alas- this isn't a perfect world. No director in their right mind would pick Ball State or Boise State over #16 Cincinnati or #17 Boston College/#25 Virginia Tech. It's not fair, but that's how it works. Over the course of the season, Ball State and Boise State have played better than any of those teams, but they won't be rewarded for it, despite finishing higher (and undefeated!) in the BCS itself. What a shame.
I know that we're years away, but I still think a playoff would be the best way to settle it. Forget automatic bids for winning a "BCS conference." That's crap. The gap is closing. Utah and Boise State showed us that (Hawaii not so much). But when App State can be Michigan in the Big House and TCU's can upset Oklahoma's, it's time to make things fair.
My proposal? Have the top 4 teams in the BCS (right now, Alabama, OU, Texas, Florida) get automatic byes, a-la the NFL. Next, take the next 8 highest ranked teams, and have them play it out. That's a field of 12 teams. So the winner of #8 Penn State and #9 Boise State plays #1 Alabama in the second round, the winner of #5 USC vs #12 Ball State plays #4 Florida, the winner of #6 Utah and #11 TCU plays #3 Texas, and the winner of #7 Texas Tech and #10 Ohio State plays #2 Oklahoma. Seems fair to me.
One of the arguments proponents of the BCS make is that it leads to an unparalled regular season. You think there's room to slip up when only 12 teams would make this field? No. TCU and OSU are the only 2-loss teams in that field, and they lost to Oklahoma and Utah and USC and Penn State respectively.
Another thing is, it wouldn't extend the season by more than a couple weeks.
As far as money and tie ins? Call the second round games your Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl, and then rotate the semi-finals and the national championship sites between those venues.
The rest of the college football world can still have their bowls. To me, this seems like the best solution. Teams are rewarded for playing well, the fat cats still make their money, their beloved BCS formula is still relevant, and you still need a stellar season to win the championship.