Who would’ve thought? After last year’s 1-15 debacle (come on, we didn’t even beat the right team! It was destiny to go into the New England game winless and hand them defeat!), the Dolphins are a very real threat to make the playoffs. They’re 7-5 so far, their best win total since Nick Saban’s first year.
The Phins have played pretty well in three of their losses this year, by my accounts. They almost beat the hated Jets at the beginning of the year, and the only thing that kept them from winning their first ever game against Houston was leaving too much time on the clock.
I’d have to say, the thing that has surprised me the most about their season isn’t the fact that they’ve won seven games- with Parcells at the helm, I was among those who expected improvement immediately, but the fact that they continue to get mileage out of their wildcat formation. Hell, it surprised me that they would use a gimmicky formation like that to begin with. But I guess if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
But back to the task at hand- making the playoffs. Last week’s loss to the Patriots still hurts, but the Dolphins played them close until a late-game meltdown. But easier times lay ahead for the Phins.
It’s pretty simple- win out, and you’ll probably nab a wild card playoff spot. They’ve got four games left- Against the bumbling Bills (in Toronto- essentially a home game for the bills), then they finish up their tilt against the NCF and AFC west, hosting the lackadaisical 49ers, and traveling to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs. The finale? A matchup with those hated Jets. The key? Win those next three games against the Bills, 49ers and Chiefs. They’re a combined 12-24. That seems like a fairly easy task- hell, three wins and a 10-6 record may even get you in. But sometimes this Dolphins team scares me.
See, while the can play up to the level of quality teams, they also play DOWN to the level of inferior opponents (see @ Houston, vs Seattle, vs Oakland, @ St. Louis). This is a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team- so which one will show up for the remaining games? Will the Dolphins come out fired up against the three ho-hum teams left on their schedule? Will Ronnie and Ricky run wild on the defenses? Will Pennington be hitting Bess and Fasano for big gains on critical third downs? Or will we see the Dolphins that struggled to beat a 2-win St. Louis team?
To be honest, I expect the Dolphins to know what is on the line, and not trip up before the season finale in the Meadowlands. I have no reason to believe that Sporano won’t have the team ready for a playoff run, sitting at 10-5 going into the game against the Jets. He’s a good coach, and the Dolphins are a solid football team. The playoffs aren’t out of the realm of possibility. The Dolphins just need to do what they’ve been doing, and take care of business. Finish 11-5, and you're in for the first time since 2001 (with an identical record, too).
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Monday, December 1, 2008
The BCS Mess, part deux
Last post I talked about a solution to the BCS. Far be it from me though to think everything the whole way though. But fear not- I've fleshed out my solutions, and even provided some (projective) examples based on this season!
So those are my ideas. I for one would love to see EITHER version, so long as we get a playoff. Too bad this won't happen this year- Am I the only one who would be excited by a Utah vs Florida matchup?
Scenario #1 (I.e. the fariest scenario that University Presidents would never endorse)
-The top 12 teams at the conclusion of the regular season get to play in a BCS bowl game
-The top 4 teams in the BCS recieve a bye to the second round
-There are NO automatic bids for BCS conferences
-The Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Peach Bowl and Citrus Bowl will host the first round matchups
-The Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Sugar Bowl, and Fiesta Bowl will host the second round games
-Whichever BCS site last hosted the championship game will not host a semi-final game
-The semi-finals sites will host the teams which it DID NOT host in the second round
-The site of the national championship will rotate as normal
-The playoff will begin on the first Thursday after the conclusion of the regular season
-Games will be held each week until the conclusion of the semi-final round, where the two finals teams will recieve an additonal week for rest and preperation
-The national championship will be played the second Saturday of January
So for instance, this year, the Superdome wouldn't host a semi-final or championship game this year. Dolphins Stadium would host the national championship as scheduled.
Here's an example of how that would look...
Scenario #2 (I.e. a scenario that isn't THAT bad, and may actually have a chance...)
-The six champions of the BCS conferences receive automatic bids
-The four highest ranked BCS conference champs receive first round byes
-The remaining two BCS conference champions will be matched with their first round opponent according to their ranking
-The remaining six playoff spots will be filled by the next six highest ranked teams in the BCS poll, HOWEVER
-Undefeated non-BCS teams ranked above the LOWEST RANKED BCS conference champion receive an automatic bid, taking the place of the lowest ranked non-conference championship teams
-Brackets will be set up using a conventional method, with highest seed facing lowest seed, etc. in the first round, despite the actual ranking of teams (I.e. #1 could play #21, should that #21 team be a BCS conference champion.)
-The Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Sugar Bowl, and Fiesta Bowl will host the second round games
-Whichever BCS site last hosted the championship game will not host a semi-final game
-The semi-finals sites will host the teams which it DID NOT host in the second round
-The site of the national championship will rotate as normal
-The playoff will begin on the first Thursday after the conclusion of the regular season
-Games will be held each week until the conclusion of the semi-final round, where the two finals teams will recieve an additonal week for rest and preperation
-The national championship will be played the second Saturday of January
-Whichever BCS site last hosted the championship game will not host a semi-final game
-The semi-finals sites will host the teams which it DID NOT host in the second round
-The site of the national championship will rotate as normal
-The playoff will begin on the first Thursday after the conclusion of the regular season
-Games will be held each week until the conclusion of the semi-final round, where the two finals teams will recieve an additonal week for rest and preperation
-The national championship will be played the second Saturday of January
Under that scenario this year, #13 Cincinnati and (presumably) #15 Boston College would get in, knocking out #12 Ball State and #11 TCU. However, #12 Ball State, being undefeated, would displace the highest automatic "at large" team, #10 Ohio State.
Here's an example of how that would look...
So those are my ideas. I for one would love to see EITHER version, so long as we get a playoff. Too bad this won't happen this year- Am I the only one who would be excited by a Utah vs Florida matchup?
The BCS Mess
The BCS has done it again. After slighting Auburn after an undefeated season a few seasons ago, the BCS has once again shut out a deserving team.
I know that by my own admission I thought OU was more deserving of the bid, but that doesn't change the fact that actual voters, and a good number of other so-called "experts" thought Texas deserved the bid. Texas is a good team, but unfortunately, under this current system, they're SOL.
But Texas isn't the only one who is going to be royally screwed out of a bid. Chances are, even with Oregon State's loss, that Boise State will be left out of a BCS bid, with the directors choosing 10-2 and less-deserving Ohio State to play in a game over them. And while we're at it, Ball State has the potential to be 13-0, ranked in the top 12 of the BCS, and also be shafted.
This is absurd. I've heard the suggestion put forth that since non-BCS conference teams have to finish in the top 12 of the BCS to be considered for a BCS bowl, why not have conference champs adhere to that same criteria? Shouldn't we reward teams for playing well instead of rewarding them because their fan bases will bring in more money?
But alas- this isn't a perfect world. No director in their right mind would pick Ball State or Boise State over #16 Cincinnati or #17 Boston College/#25 Virginia Tech. It's not fair, but that's how it works. Over the course of the season, Ball State and Boise State have played better than any of those teams, but they won't be rewarded for it, despite finishing higher (and undefeated!) in the BCS itself. What a shame.
I know that we're years away, but I still think a playoff would be the best way to settle it. Forget automatic bids for winning a "BCS conference." That's crap. The gap is closing. Utah and Boise State showed us that (Hawaii not so much). But when App State can be Michigan in the Big House and TCU's can upset Oklahoma's, it's time to make things fair.
My proposal? Have the top 4 teams in the BCS (right now, Alabama, OU, Texas, Florida) get automatic byes, a-la the NFL. Next, take the next 8 highest ranked teams, and have them play it out. That's a field of 12 teams. So the winner of #8 Penn State and #9 Boise State plays #1 Alabama in the second round, the winner of #5 USC vs #12 Ball State plays #4 Florida, the winner of #6 Utah and #11 TCU plays #3 Texas, and the winner of #7 Texas Tech and #10 Ohio State plays #2 Oklahoma. Seems fair to me.
One of the arguments proponents of the BCS make is that it leads to an unparalled regular season. You think there's room to slip up when only 12 teams would make this field? No. TCU and OSU are the only 2-loss teams in that field, and they lost to Oklahoma and Utah and USC and Penn State respectively.
Another thing is, it wouldn't extend the season by more than a couple weeks.
As far as money and tie ins? Call the second round games your Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl, and then rotate the semi-finals and the national championship sites between those venues.
The rest of the college football world can still have their bowls. To me, this seems like the best solution. Teams are rewarded for playing well, the fat cats still make their money, their beloved BCS formula is still relevant, and you still need a stellar season to win the championship.
I know that by my own admission I thought OU was more deserving of the bid, but that doesn't change the fact that actual voters, and a good number of other so-called "experts" thought Texas deserved the bid. Texas is a good team, but unfortunately, under this current system, they're SOL.
But Texas isn't the only one who is going to be royally screwed out of a bid. Chances are, even with Oregon State's loss, that Boise State will be left out of a BCS bid, with the directors choosing 10-2 and less-deserving Ohio State to play in a game over them. And while we're at it, Ball State has the potential to be 13-0, ranked in the top 12 of the BCS, and also be shafted.
This is absurd. I've heard the suggestion put forth that since non-BCS conference teams have to finish in the top 12 of the BCS to be considered for a BCS bowl, why not have conference champs adhere to that same criteria? Shouldn't we reward teams for playing well instead of rewarding them because their fan bases will bring in more money?
But alas- this isn't a perfect world. No director in their right mind would pick Ball State or Boise State over #16 Cincinnati or #17 Boston College/#25 Virginia Tech. It's not fair, but that's how it works. Over the course of the season, Ball State and Boise State have played better than any of those teams, but they won't be rewarded for it, despite finishing higher (and undefeated!) in the BCS itself. What a shame.
I know that we're years away, but I still think a playoff would be the best way to settle it. Forget automatic bids for winning a "BCS conference." That's crap. The gap is closing. Utah and Boise State showed us that (Hawaii not so much). But when App State can be Michigan in the Big House and TCU's can upset Oklahoma's, it's time to make things fair.
My proposal? Have the top 4 teams in the BCS (right now, Alabama, OU, Texas, Florida) get automatic byes, a-la the NFL. Next, take the next 8 highest ranked teams, and have them play it out. That's a field of 12 teams. So the winner of #8 Penn State and #9 Boise State plays #1 Alabama in the second round, the winner of #5 USC vs #12 Ball State plays #4 Florida, the winner of #6 Utah and #11 TCU plays #3 Texas, and the winner of #7 Texas Tech and #10 Ohio State plays #2 Oklahoma. Seems fair to me.
One of the arguments proponents of the BCS make is that it leads to an unparalled regular season. You think there's room to slip up when only 12 teams would make this field? No. TCU and OSU are the only 2-loss teams in that field, and they lost to Oklahoma and Utah and USC and Penn State respectively.
Another thing is, it wouldn't extend the season by more than a couple weeks.
As far as money and tie ins? Call the second round games your Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl, and then rotate the semi-finals and the national championship sites between those venues.
The rest of the college football world can still have their bowls. To me, this seems like the best solution. Teams are rewarded for playing well, the fat cats still make their money, their beloved BCS formula is still relevant, and you still need a stellar season to win the championship.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Who should win the Big 12 South?
The Big 12 south is arguably the best division in (maybe) the best conference in college football this season. Three teams finished division play with 7-1 conference records and are 11-1 overall. This, as every media outlet that covers sports has said, has led to a clusterf*ck. Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech are all vying to get to the Big 12 Championship game and the BCS National Championship game. But who should go?
The case for Texas:
45-35 winner vs #1 OU
39-33 loser @ #7 TTU
The Longhorns showed resolve in this year's Red River Rivalry, coming in as dogs to the top ranked Sooners. Colt McCoy and Texas matched Oklahoma blow for blow the entire game to knock off the mighty Sooners. The game was played at a neutral site between the two best teams in the Big 12 South (my apologies to Texas Tech). Even in their loss, McCoy was phenomenal, and their only mistake was leaving too much time on the clock after driving the length of the field to win in. That should be enough to get the Longhorns in, right?
Well... Not exactly. Their out of conference schedule consisted of FAU, UTEP, Rice, and Arkansas. UTEP and Arkansas are both 5-7, while FAU is 6-6. Rice is the only decent out of conference team they played, at 9-3.
Against common opponents (compared to OU), Texas was 4-1 and outscored their opposition 190-100. For Texas Tech, they were 5-0, outsocring their opponenets 202-102.
Wins against ranked teams include three in a row over #1 Oklahoma, #11 Missouri, and #6 Oklahoma State.
The case for Oklahoma:
65-21 winner over #2 Texas Tech
45-35 loser vs #5 Texas
Since their loss to the Longhorns, the Sooners are probably playing the best offensive football in the country right now. They've scored at least 45 in every game, including four straight with 60+.
One knock on Texas was its' weak out of conference schedule- Not so with the Sooners. Yes, they played Chatanooga and Washington, but they also played the Big East champs and Orange Bowl bound Cincinnati Bearcats, as well as a very good TCU squad... by a combined score of 87-36.
As far as common opponents? Among common opponents with Texas, OU is 5-0, outscoring their opponents 286-138. Against common opponents with Texas Tech, they are 4-1, outscoring opponents 256-162.
Quality wins include the win over eventual conference champ Cincinnati, against #24 TCU, #16 Kansas, #2 Texas Tech and #12 Oklahoma State.
The case for Texas Tech:
39-33 winners over #1 Texas
65-21 losers @ #5 Oklahoma
The Red Raiders are the hardest team to make an argument for. Luckily for them, the BCS isn't as big on "style points" as it once was. However, enough cannot be said about Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, and the rest of the Texas Tech team. Facing defeat in the biggest game in the program's history, they knock off #1 Texas when Crabtree snuck into the endzone with a few ticks left on the clock.
The fact that they got their clock cleaned by Oklahoma.... you can chalk it up to a few factors (which doesn't make it any better, by the way). They were playing the Sooners in Norman, with the Sooners in a must win game- I defy you to find a team that WOULDN'T lose in that situation. Also, every team has a bad day. Unfortunately, the Red Raiders chose to have it on the worst day possible.
Their out of conference schedule is also damning- Two FCS teams, 1-11 Southern Methodist, and a medicore 7-5 Nevada squad aren't going to help their stock.
But what about common opponents? For schools in common with Texas, the Red Raiders went 4-1, outscoring the opposition 218-159. With the Sooners, they are 5-0, outscoring opponenets 236-127.
Their big wins? Not as many as Texas and Oklahoma- They beat #1 Texas and #9 Oklahoma State.
So, who goes? I think it's safe to eliminate the Red Raiders from the conversation. They got absolutely shellacked by OU, and Texas wasn't out of the game until the very end. Their out of conference schedule is w-e-a-k, and they didn't beat as many ranked teams as either OU or UT.
That leaves the Longhorns and the Sooners. Were this an actual two way tie, the answer would be easy. However, Tech chose to complicate the picture, leaving the choice up to the votes. If I had a vote?
I'd go with Oklahoma, by a hair. They may have lost to Texas, but they've atoned ever since then, much like Florida has since Ole Miss. Their out of conference schedule also provides a big boost over Texas- the fact that they played (and beat) TCU and Cincinnati is what ends up pushing them over the top.
Don't get me wrong, I think Texas is a great football team, but since it is a three way tie, and not an actual two way tie, I have to reward the Sooners for beating more quality teams than the Longhorns this year.
So... here's hoping for a UF-OU matchup in the BCS National Championship!
The case for Texas:
45-35 winner vs #1 OU
39-33 loser @ #7 TTU
The Longhorns showed resolve in this year's Red River Rivalry, coming in as dogs to the top ranked Sooners. Colt McCoy and Texas matched Oklahoma blow for blow the entire game to knock off the mighty Sooners. The game was played at a neutral site between the two best teams in the Big 12 South (my apologies to Texas Tech). Even in their loss, McCoy was phenomenal, and their only mistake was leaving too much time on the clock after driving the length of the field to win in. That should be enough to get the Longhorns in, right?
Well... Not exactly. Their out of conference schedule consisted of FAU, UTEP, Rice, and Arkansas. UTEP and Arkansas are both 5-7, while FAU is 6-6. Rice is the only decent out of conference team they played, at 9-3.
Against common opponents (compared to OU), Texas was 4-1 and outscored their opposition 190-100. For Texas Tech, they were 5-0, outsocring their opponenets 202-102.
Wins against ranked teams include three in a row over #1 Oklahoma, #11 Missouri, and #6 Oklahoma State.
The case for Oklahoma:
65-21 winner over #2 Texas Tech
45-35 loser vs #5 Texas
Since their loss to the Longhorns, the Sooners are probably playing the best offensive football in the country right now. They've scored at least 45 in every game, including four straight with 60+.
One knock on Texas was its' weak out of conference schedule- Not so with the Sooners. Yes, they played Chatanooga and Washington, but they also played the Big East champs and Orange Bowl bound Cincinnati Bearcats, as well as a very good TCU squad... by a combined score of 87-36.
As far as common opponents? Among common opponents with Texas, OU is 5-0, outscoring their opponents 286-138. Against common opponents with Texas Tech, they are 4-1, outscoring opponents 256-162.
Quality wins include the win over eventual conference champ Cincinnati, against #24 TCU, #16 Kansas, #2 Texas Tech and #12 Oklahoma State.
The case for Texas Tech:
39-33 winners over #1 Texas
65-21 losers @ #5 Oklahoma
The Red Raiders are the hardest team to make an argument for. Luckily for them, the BCS isn't as big on "style points" as it once was. However, enough cannot be said about Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, and the rest of the Texas Tech team. Facing defeat in the biggest game in the program's history, they knock off #1 Texas when Crabtree snuck into the endzone with a few ticks left on the clock.
The fact that they got their clock cleaned by Oklahoma.... you can chalk it up to a few factors (which doesn't make it any better, by the way). They were playing the Sooners in Norman, with the Sooners in a must win game- I defy you to find a team that WOULDN'T lose in that situation. Also, every team has a bad day. Unfortunately, the Red Raiders chose to have it on the worst day possible.
Their out of conference schedule is also damning- Two FCS teams, 1-11 Southern Methodist, and a medicore 7-5 Nevada squad aren't going to help their stock.
But what about common opponents? For schools in common with Texas, the Red Raiders went 4-1, outscoring the opposition 218-159. With the Sooners, they are 5-0, outscoring opponenets 236-127.
Their big wins? Not as many as Texas and Oklahoma- They beat #1 Texas and #9 Oklahoma State.
So, who goes? I think it's safe to eliminate the Red Raiders from the conversation. They got absolutely shellacked by OU, and Texas wasn't out of the game until the very end. Their out of conference schedule is w-e-a-k, and they didn't beat as many ranked teams as either OU or UT.
That leaves the Longhorns and the Sooners. Were this an actual two way tie, the answer would be easy. However, Tech chose to complicate the picture, leaving the choice up to the votes. If I had a vote?
I'd go with Oklahoma, by a hair. They may have lost to Texas, but they've atoned ever since then, much like Florida has since Ole Miss. Their out of conference schedule also provides a big boost over Texas- the fact that they played (and beat) TCU and Cincinnati is what ends up pushing them over the top.
Don't get me wrong, I think Texas is a great football team, but since it is a three way tie, and not an actual two way tie, I have to reward the Sooners for beating more quality teams than the Longhorns this year.
So... here's hoping for a UF-OU matchup in the BCS National Championship!
Twelve down, two to go
The Florida Gators dismantled Florida State today in Tallahassee. The 45 points scored was the most that the Gators have ever scored in Trashahassee. There are a couple of encouraging things about this rout-
1) The Gatos accomplished this feat in the pouring rain. They gashed the Noles for something like 317 yards on the ground, and Tebow added another 185 through the air.
2) Percy Harvin was out for most of the game, yet the Gators still found a way to score 42+ (and win by 28+) for the eighth game in a row.
3) The defense only gave up 15 points and 242 yards to the Criminoles.
Of course, the fact that Percy was injured doesn't bode too well for next week's match-up with #1 Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Truth be told, I think that even without Harvin, UF will be fine. They still have potent weapons in Demps, Rainey, Moody, Thompson, Murphy, Hernandez, etc.
One thing that bugs me though is Alabama's #1 ranking. Honestly, there are probably four teams (UF, OU, UT, USC) that are more talented and playing as well as (or better than) the Crimson Tide. Still, the game won't be a gimme by any stretch of the imagination. Whether it's because the voters are rewarding them for being undefeated in the always tough SEC, or they actually believe they are the best team in the country, the Gators had better come to play on December 6, or else they can look forward to a trip to New Orleans instead of Miami Gardens.
1) The Gatos accomplished this feat in the pouring rain. They gashed the Noles for something like 317 yards on the ground, and Tebow added another 185 through the air.
2) Percy Harvin was out for most of the game, yet the Gators still found a way to score 42+ (and win by 28+) for the eighth game in a row.
3) The defense only gave up 15 points and 242 yards to the Criminoles.
Of course, the fact that Percy was injured doesn't bode too well for next week's match-up with #1 Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Truth be told, I think that even without Harvin, UF will be fine. They still have potent weapons in Demps, Rainey, Moody, Thompson, Murphy, Hernandez, etc.
One thing that bugs me though is Alabama's #1 ranking. Honestly, there are probably four teams (UF, OU, UT, USC) that are more talented and playing as well as (or better than) the Crimson Tide. Still, the game won't be a gimme by any stretch of the imagination. Whether it's because the voters are rewarding them for being undefeated in the always tough SEC, or they actually believe they are the best team in the country, the Gators had better come to play on December 6, or else they can look forward to a trip to New Orleans instead of Miami Gardens.
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