Sunday, November 30, 2008

Who should win the Big 12 South?

The Big 12 south is arguably the best division in (maybe) the best conference in college football this season. Three teams finished division play with 7-1 conference records and are 11-1 overall. This, as every media outlet that covers sports has said, has led to a clusterf*ck. Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech are all vying to get to the Big 12 Championship game and the BCS National Championship game. But who should go?

The case for Texas:
45-35 winner vs #1 OU
39-33 loser @ #7 TTU
The Longhorns showed resolve in this year's Red River Rivalry, coming in as dogs to the top ranked Sooners. Colt McCoy and Texas matched Oklahoma blow for blow the entire game to knock off the mighty Sooners. The game was played at a neutral site between the two best teams in the Big 12 South (my apologies to Texas Tech). Even in their loss, McCoy was phenomenal, and their only mistake was leaving too much time on the clock after driving the length of the field to win in. That should be enough to get the Longhorns in, right?
Well... Not exactly. Their out of conference schedule consisted of FAU, UTEP, Rice, and Arkansas. UTEP and Arkansas are both 5-7, while FAU is 6-6. Rice is the only decent out of conference team they played, at 9-3.
Against common opponents (compared to OU), Texas was 4-1 and outscored their opposition 190-100. For Texas Tech, they were 5-0, outsocring their opponenets 202-102.
Wins against ranked teams include three in a row over #1 Oklahoma, #11 Missouri, and #6 Oklahoma State.

The case for Oklahoma:
65-21 winner over #2 Texas Tech
45-35 loser vs #5 Texas
Since their loss to the Longhorns, the Sooners are probably playing the best offensive football in the country right now. They've scored at least 45 in every game, including four straight with 60+.
One knock on Texas was its' weak out of conference schedule- Not so with the Sooners. Yes, they played Chatanooga and Washington, but they also played the Big East champs and Orange Bowl bound Cincinnati Bearcats, as well as a very good TCU squad... by a combined score of 87-36.
As far as common opponents? Among common opponents with Texas, OU is 5-0, outscoring their opponents 286-138. Against common opponents with Texas Tech, they are 4-1, outscoring opponents 256-162.
Quality wins include the win over eventual conference champ Cincinnati, against #24 TCU, #16 Kansas, #2 Texas Tech and #12 Oklahoma State.

The case for Texas Tech:
39-33 winners over #1 Texas
65-21 losers @ #5 Oklahoma

The Red Raiders are the hardest team to make an argument for. Luckily for them, the BCS isn't as big on "style points" as it once was. However, enough cannot be said about Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, and the rest of the Texas Tech team. Facing defeat in the biggest game in the program's history, they knock off #1 Texas when Crabtree snuck into the endzone with a few ticks left on the clock.
The fact that they got their clock cleaned by Oklahoma.... you can chalk it up to a few factors (which doesn't make it any better, by the way). They were playing the Sooners in Norman, with the Sooners in a must win game- I defy you to find a team that WOULDN'T lose in that situation. Also, every team has a bad day. Unfortunately, the Red Raiders chose to have it on the worst day possible.
Their out of conference schedule is also damning- Two FCS teams, 1-11 Southern Methodist, and a medicore 7-5 Nevada squad aren't going to help their stock.
But what about common opponents? For schools in common with Texas, the Red Raiders went 4-1, outscoring the opposition 218-159. With the Sooners, they are 5-0, outscoring opponenets 236-127.
Their big wins? Not as many as Texas and Oklahoma- They beat #1 Texas and #9 Oklahoma State.

So, who goes? I think it's safe to eliminate the Red Raiders from the conversation. They got absolutely shellacked by OU, and Texas wasn't out of the game until the very end. Their out of conference schedule is w-e-a-k, and they didn't beat as many ranked teams as either OU or UT.
That leaves the Longhorns and the Sooners. Were this an actual two way tie, the answer would be easy. However, Tech chose to complicate the picture, leaving the choice up to the votes. If I had a vote?
I'd go with Oklahoma, by a hair. They may have lost to Texas, but they've atoned ever since then, much like Florida has since Ole Miss. Their out of conference schedule also provides a big boost over Texas- the fact that they played (and beat) TCU and Cincinnati is what ends up pushing them over the top.
Don't get me wrong, I think Texas is a great football team, but since it is a three way tie, and not an actual two way tie, I have to reward the Sooners for beating more quality teams than the Longhorns this year.
So... here's hoping for a UF-OU matchup in the BCS National Championship!

Twelve down, two to go

The Florida Gators dismantled Florida State today in Tallahassee. The 45 points scored was the most that the Gators have ever scored in Trashahassee. There are a couple of encouraging things about this rout-
1) The Gatos accomplished this feat in the pouring rain. They gashed the Noles for something like 317 yards on the ground, and Tebow added another 185 through the air.
2) Percy Harvin was out for most of the game, yet the Gators still found a way to score 42+ (and win by 28+) for the eighth game in a row.
3) The defense only gave up 15 points and 242 yards to the Criminoles.
Of course, the fact that Percy was injured doesn't bode too well for next week's match-up with #1 Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Truth be told, I think that even without Harvin, UF will be fine. They still have potent weapons in Demps, Rainey, Moody, Thompson, Murphy, Hernandez, etc.
One thing that bugs me though is Alabama's #1 ranking. Honestly, there are probably four teams (UF, OU, UT, USC) that are more talented and playing as well as (or better than) the Crimson Tide. Still, the game won't be a gimme by any stretch of the imagination. Whether it's because the voters are rewarding them for being undefeated in the always tough SEC, or they actually believe they are the best team in the country, the Gators had better come to play on December 6, or else they can look forward to a trip to New Orleans instead of Miami Gardens.