Thursday, December 3, 2009

This week's previews: #19 Oregon State vs #7 Oregon

This one has the potential to be an instant classic. Both teams are pretty close to the middle of the pack defensively, raking #4 (Oregon State) and #5 (Oregon) in the Pac 10 defensively. Both also put up big numbers on offense, with Oregon in the top 10 nationally and Oregon State at #21.

There are some interesting matchups here. Each defense is strong against the other team's best offensive asset- Oregon State is better than Oregon against the run (98.5 yd/gm for the Beavers), and Oregon is better than Oregon State against the pass (193.4 yd/gm for the Ducks).
That being said, I certainly think with players like Jaquizz Rodgers and Jeremiah Masoli, both the Ducks and Beavers will be able to perform offensively. Something that is a bit disconcerting for the Beavers- the Ducks have almost twice as man picks as they do (13 to 7), so if both teams can find their strength, it'll be advantage Ducks.
There's also some intangible factors here- The Beavers want revenge for the Ducks ruining their chance at the Rose Bowl last year. Since this is a winner take all game (winner gets the Pac 10), as well as a rivalry, you can bet the Beavers will leave it all on the field.
Similarly, the Ducks want to prove that they're legitimate top contenders by getting to the Rose Bowl and taking down Ohio State. They may have been in the conversation for a national championship were it not for their hiccup against Stanford.
A final important factor is home field advantage. The Ducks are hosting this one in Autzen Stadium, by all accounts I've heard, a difficult place to play. But don't take my word for it, ask Matt Barkley. I think that will play a big role in this game- the fans know what's at stake, and they hate Oregon State anyways. Not a good combo.
So, all said and done, what do I expect from this game? Lots of offensive fireworks. I predict a victory (and Pac 10 crown) for the Oregon Ducks by a score of 42-33.

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