Saturday, January 15, 2011

Five fearless predictions for the 2011 season

Maybe this is hypocritical- after all, I am one of the people that absolutely decries preseason polls. But this isn't about ranking the teams. These are just five bold predictions for next year's oh-so-far-away college football season. Hold onto your hats, folks.

1. The SEC East will have four of its teams in contention for the division title going into the last week of SEC games.

South Carolina showed this year that they are a good football team. They are a football team that can be VERY good at times, but they are not yet an elite team. Tennessee and Georgia both came on strong at the end of the year before one was screwed out of a bowl victory and one forgot to show up. As for Florida, they bring in a new coaching staff with a firm idea of the identity they want the team to have, unlike the past year. All of this will set up a very interesting season filled with parity. Though South Carolina has the inside track, they are South Carolina, and probably won't be running away with the division like Florida did in 2008 and 2009.

2. LSU will win the SEC West handily.
Yes, they lose some important pieces, but with Gary Crowton skipping town and Les Miles staying put, they should win the SEC West. Alabama looked like beasts in their game against Michigan State, but they lose more juniors than does LSU, and Mississippi State, while good, is probably not yet at a level where they can defeat LSU and Alabama with any consistency. LSU probably won't be undefeated, but they should still win the division by at least a game.

3. Florida State will be undefeated.
Yes, I know they play Oklahoma. Yes, I know the defense was still suspect and the offense could stall at times. Yes, I know that Christian Ponder is gone. But this is essentially and SEC team. They have the speed, they have the coaches, they recruit the sames players. The only difference? They get to play in the ACC. Let's be honest, despite the 5-5 record in bowl games, the SEC is a much better conference than the ACC.  The Nole will only have to get up for Oklahoma and Florida. The odds are stacked in their favor. Maybe even to win the whole she-bang...

4. Stanford won't be undefeated.
Oregon will slide, and though it won't be by much, I think that Stanford will be the favorites to win the Pac 12. They return star QB Andrew Luck, and while Jim Harbaugh is gone, his offensive coordinator was promoted. They shouldn't miss a beat offensively. This team almost beat Oregon in Autzen last season. I think they'll get revenge against the Ducks this year. So who will defeat them? Arizona played them tough for a half. UCLA pulled some big upsets last year, and USC is still dangerous. Bottom line, I don't think that they win out- and for that reason, I think a one-loss SEC champion gets the nod over them for the title game.

5. TCU or Boise will be undefeated, but still miss the championship game in favor of a one-loss AQ team.
As it should be, in my opinion. Still, each of these schools has a decent schedule next season. The Mountain West will be at its strongest next year before TCU leaves, and the Horned Frogs especially have out of conference games against the likes of SMU as well. Still, I see at least three teams- Stanford, Oklahoma and LSU- being one-loss conference champs when it's time to decide who plays FSU for the title. I think that LSU will be the one to get the nod, since the Big 12 (Ten) will be diluted, the Pac 12 is no SEC, and the SEC East won't be as down next year as it was this year.

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