Friday, October 23, 2009

This weekend's previews

This weekend is not as crazy as last weekend in terms of matchups of ranked teams, but six will still take the field against each other.
First up is #16 South Florida against #18 Pittsburgh. Offensively, these teams are just about mirror images of each other. They ranked #21 (South Florida) and #23 (Pittsburgh) nationally in scoring offense at 33.7 and 33.3 points a game respectively. USF is only about 12 and 13 yards better through the air and on the ground respectively, compared to Pittsburgh.

South Florida's defense is a bit better- They allow 5 points less per contest and defend against the pass better. South Florida has 8 picks compared to Pittsburgh's 4. However, as Cincinnati showed last week, South Florida's run defense is just about average. Pittsburgh is better against the run than the Bulls.
I expect Dion Lewis to run against the Bulls with great success. The game will be played in Heinz Field, and I believe the cracks in the Bulls' armor is starting to show once again. South Florida will play better than last week, but Pittsburgh wins this one 34-24.

Next up is the battle of the Tigers. #22 Auburn visits #7 LSU. This matchup is a hard one for me to peg. On the one hand, I think LSU has a pretty good defense. Their offense, on the other hand, is... anemic, to say the least. Auburn is the opposite. Their offense has been good this year, but their defense has been lacking.
LSU last took the field in Death Valley against #2 Florida and managed only 3 points. Auburn got beaten by Kentucky 21-14. After firing on all cylinders for the first five games, Gene Chizik's team has forgotten how to score points.
LSU on the other hand never figured out how to score points. As I said before, I could see this game going either way. It will be hard for Auburn's offense to get on track in Death Valley, but unless LSU can put up some points, it won't matter. I think LSU stands a decent chance of putting up points against Auburn's defense though.
Do I think Auburn will continue to be lost and lose a third game in a row? Perhaps. Do I think that LSU will lost back to back games at home? Absolutely not. I don't think this game will be particularly pretty, and defense and special teams will decide the outcome more than the offenses. LSU squeaks by with a 24-17 win.

Finally, we have #8 TCU at #24 BYU. Honetly, TCU is a much better team defensively. They allow more than a touchdown less a game, and have given up about 700 fewer yards through the air than the Cougars. They've also surrendured 200 yards less on the ground. The only area BYU outshines TCU is in picks- they've got 8 to TCU's 4.
BYU puts up more points a game (38.6- about 5 more than TCU), but they've done it against far inferior competition. TCU are no slouches themselves, scoring 33.8 points per. For a team that is average at best against the rush, TCU has a huge edge, as they run for over 200 a contest on the ground.
TCU is undefeated this season so far. BYU has a loss to (slightly less pathetic looking) Florida State. At home. TCU still has a lot to play for- an undefeated season will lead to a BCS bowl, and a (very, very) long shot at playing for the national championship. BYU will probably not get that chance, even if they win out.
I expect TCU to throttle the Cougars in Provo, and win easily 28-10.

No comments: