Two of the top ten teams in the nation square off tonight in Raymond James Stadium as the Cincinnati Bearcats take on the South Florida Bulls. The big name going into this matchup is Cincinnati quarterback Tony Pike. He's been mentioned in Heisman talk, and is probably the best offensive player in the Big East.
Cincinnati picked up where they left off last season, with the #11 offense in the country, generating 468.2 yards a game. It's not a surprise that Pike is leading the charge. Pike already has 1493 yards and 13 touchdowns this season against decent competition, including Oregon State, Rutgers, and Fresno State. The Bearcats average 333.4 passing yards a game, good for seventh in I-A.
How are the Bulls doing? Not bad. The freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels doesn't throw it as much as Pike, but the Bulls are still in the upper half of I-A, averaging 232 yards a game through the air. The Bulls rely on Daniels and Moise Plancher to get it done on the ground. They have the better run game, churning out 190.8 yards a contest, 28th in all of I-A. Their total offense ranks 34 in I-A (at 413.6 ypg), and their scoring offense isn't far behind Cincinnati's at 37 points per, 17th in I-A.
With the offenses evenly matched, it comes down to defense. The Bearcats and the Bulls are virtually identical in rush defenese. The Bulls have the 17th ranked rush defense (104.8 yards per), while the Bearcats have the 18th ranked rush defense (105.6 yards per).
South Florida has stood up much better against the pass, however. They are number six in the nation against the pass, allowing a scant 158.2 yards per contest. The Bearcats are only 39th in that category, allowing 208.8 yards per. Both defenses have a propensity to pick off passes- South Florida has seven picks this year, including one returned for a TD, while the Bearcats have 11 picks themsevles.
South Florida is also fifth in the nation in points per game, allowing only 9.4 points a game. Cincinnati is close behind at #10 in the nation, allowing 13.8 points per game.
This makes for an interesting matchup. Raymond James will probably be near full, and crazy things happen in Thursday night games. Both teams are similar, but Cincinnati has played stronger schedule (though South Florida did have a good road win in Tallahassee). This game will match Cinncinnati's offensive strength against South Florida's defensive strength. The Bulls also face a good run defense, but they can hit you multiple ways on the ground. The Bearcats will have a tougher time moving the ball against the likes of Jason Pierre-Paul and George Selvie.
When you're talking about matching offensive muscle against defensive muscle though, a similar pattern has emerged over the years- defense usually trumps offense. For the inside track to the Big East title and an outside shot at playing for the BCS National Championship, this game is huge. The fans at USF know this. USF plays better defense than the Bearcats, and can keep stride offensively. So who wins this matchup of unbeaten teams? South Florida grits it out with good defensive play and timely scores and gets the win 24-21.
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