Tuesday, October 13, 2009

This weekend's previews: #18 Southern Cal @ #24 Notre Dame

The rivalry between the Fighting Irish and the Trojans will be renewed this weekend, as both teams come into the matchup ranked since the 2005 classic.
This is an interesting matchup, as it's a bit hard to get a read on either of these teams. Each team has a loss, though Notre Dame's loss (on the road at Michigan) is arguably better than USC's (on the road at Washington). I know some of you may be barking that USC played that game with their backup quarterback, but with such superior athletes, and against a team that was winless the previous season, USC really had no excuse for losing that game.
Looking at the offenses, Notre Dame has a decided advantage here. Jimmy Clausen, turf toe or not, is having a monster year thus far- a 67.6 completion percentage, 1544 yards, and 12 TDs against only 2 picks. Not to mention, he leads the nation in efficency. Clausen has great intangibles as well, as evidence by Notre Dame's numerous last second victories this year. He's been the starter at Notre Dame since the 2006 season, so he undoubtedly has an edge there over USC's Matt Barkley.
Barkley hasn't lived up to USC's four previous quarterbacks so far this year, throwing for only 3 TDs against 2 picks, as well as less than 1000 yards. Yes, he was out for a game, but with playmakers like USC has, after four games in this offense, there's no reason why Barkley's numbers should be so low. His best game of the year so far was at home against Washington State, where he had 247 yards and two TDs. However, on the road at Ohio State and against Cal, Barkley has completed barely half his passes (53%), thrown zero TDs and two picks. You'd better believe that the folks in South Bend won't make this game a hospitable environment for Barkley and the Trojans.
However, where Barkley falls short, the Trojan's stable of running backs makes up for the slack. they average 208 rushing yards a game, 17th best in the nation. Notre Dame is giving up 139.6 yards on the ground a game. That doesn't bode well for the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame is also allowing 403.2 total yards a game, better than just 21 I-A teams.
USC on the other hand is surrenduring only 238.6 yards a game, good for sixth in the nation. Their rush defense in particular is allowing 64.8 yards a contest. Norte Dame churns out 148 rushing yards a game, exactly in the middle of the pack at 60th in the nation. So if Notre Dame is to gain an offensive edge, they will need to rely exploiting USC's #17 pass defense (173.8 yards/game). With 333.2 passing yards a game (good for 8th in the nation), if Jimmy Clausen can avoid throwing to Taylor Mays, the Fighting Irish have a chance.
As far as the quality of their schedule so far goes, Notre Dame will have a big edge on USC, having already played the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, Nevada, Purdue, and (wait for it) Washington. USC played that same Washington team and lost, albeit Notre Dame got them at home. Notre Dame's biggest margin of victory was 35-0 over a good offensive Nevada team, but their rest of their games have been close, with the most lopsided score being a 37-30 win over Washington.
The Trojans have played a couple of decent games, including at Ohio State (who isn't nearly as good as ESPN would have you believe) and at Cal (how they were ever ranked as high as they were is beyond me). Their other games were home against San Jose State, and against the Washington schools (they split those, 1-1). USC blew out the not-very-good teams (excepting Washington) by a combined score of 113-12, while beating Ohio State by just a field goal, and losing by the same margin to Washington.
What this comes down to it that USC has been feasting on cupcakes and struggling in games against legitimate competition, while Notre Dame has showed that it has some grit and can beat higher quality teams.
So my prediction for this weekend? I think that USC is vasty overrated by ESPN. Their defensive stats are a bit padded, while Notre Dame's poor stats have come against quality competition. I'm not saying USC isn't a quality team- I have them at #18, so I think they're decent. I'm not a big Notre Dame guy, but they've had a good year so far. They've shown they can win close games, and with Jimmy Clausen at the helm, I expect Notre Dame to keep this one close. Call me crazy, but I think the Fighting Irish break their seven game losing streak and put an end to USC's national title hopes by a final score of 28-24.

No comments: