This weekend's previews: #5 Iowa @ #22 Wisconsin

Iowa is one of those teams that the folks at ESPN don't give much respect to. Despite a 6-0 record, they're ranked outside the top 10 in both the AP and USA Today polls, behind (one-loss) Ohio State and only a few spots above (one-loss) Penn State. Wisconsin is in a similar boat- despite being 5-1 and thuroughly outplaying Ohio State in the Horseshoe (Ohio State's defense sealed the deal), they find themselves unranked going into this week's matchup with the Hawkeyes.

For the Hawkeyes, it all starts with defense. They are only 67th in total offense, generating 363 yards a game. They also average only 25.7 points per game, 66th in all of I-A. Their best offensive bet is their passing game, which is ranked 41st in the country at 251.3 yards a game. With numbers like that, it's a good thing their defense is 20th in points allowed. They allow only 15.8 points per game. They're slightly worse in total defense, allowing 305.3 yards per game. That's still good for 3rd in the Big 11 and 30th overall in the nation.
Their pass defense is ranked 37th in I-A, allowing 171 pass yards a game. Their rush defense is middle of the pack, allowing 134.3 yards a game. However, their strength is in their takeaways- Iowa is second in the nation with 12 picks, averaging two per game.
Wisconsin isn't as good defensively, ranking only 8th in the Big 11. They allow 25.7 points per game, but are fifth in the conference in yards per game, allowing only 333.2 a yards contest. They rank fourth in the conference with 9 interceptions. They allow 210.3 passing yards a game, compared to 122.8 rush yards a game, better than Iowa.
Wisconsin's strength is their run game- they rush for 200.7 yards a game, good for 21st in I-A. This bodes well for the Badgers, who are mere mortals against the run. Couple this with the fact that the game is in Madison, then the Hawkeyes are in a bit of trouble.
Iowa will need to lean on their passing game. Wisconsin isn't that great against the pass, and with their average run game, the Badgers will be able to stuff their runners if they can't establish their passing game.
Numbers are well and good, but they don't mean anything unless you know who they've come against. Iowa has played six games, and three of them have been decided by a field goal or less. You would expect that Arizona, Penn State and Michigan would have given them the most problems, but you'd only be right on one count. Mighty Northern Iowa and 1-3 Sun Belt team Arkansas State each came within a field goal of defeating the Hawkeyes IN Iowa City. Their best win is in Penn State against #21 Penn State. They win ugly, but they do win, and agaisnt a decent slate, they're 6-0.
Wisconsin has traveled a different road. They have played perennially decent Northern Illionis to open the year, and en route to a 5-0 record defeated a good Fresno State team and beat 4-2 Minnesota on the road. Their only hiccup came against #19 Ohio State in Columbus. Wisconsin were a few defensive and special teams plays from upsetting Ohio State, and I expect that they will be fired up going into the matchup against Iowa.
So, all things considered, who wins this game? Iowa is a good team- they can blow people out (sort of) and they can definitley win close. Their schedules have been about the same, and the two teams are very similar. However, Wisconsin is coming off a tough loss, and after working their way to 5-0 to find themselves ranked, they're one again being discounted by the pollsters. Iowa is at least ranked, even if it's too low. I expect Wisconsin to come out strong, and the fans to be rowdy. Wisconsin wins their homecoming game 34-21, handing Iowa their first loss of the season.