This weekend's previews: #11 Southern Cal @ #9 Oregon

For as good as everyone says Southern Cal is, they sure play with their backs against the wall a lot of the time. They Trojans are 3-1 in the Pac-10 after suffering a (not entirely unexpected) defeat at the hands of powerhouse (er... 3-5) Washington earlier this year. A loss to the #9 Ducks (4-0 in Pac-10 play, including easily dispatching the same Washinton team) would end the Men of Troy's hopes for winning the Pac-10, playing in the national championship, and probably playing in a BCS bowl.

Since it's almost Halloween, I'm going to start off by pointing out some spooky things. You know how the Pac-10 is all offense? Well, Oregon and USC are #15 and #19 nationally in points allowed. USC allows 15.1 points per, while Oregon only allows 16.7 points per. Not bad for a couple of Pac-10 teams. Those numbers are fairly impressive, considering each has played three ranked teams (by the bigs boys, not me). The wheels have kind of falled off USC's defense the past couple of weeks though, allowing and average of 31.5 against Notre Dame and Oregon State (and they got the Beavers at home!).
The two top scoring defense in the Pac-10 are also #2 and #3 respectively in yards per game. USC allows 291.7 per, while Oregon allows 297.1 (funny, that is). Oregon is better against the pass (178.3 yards per vs USC's 211.9), while USC is better against the run (79.9 yards per vs the Ducks' 118.9 yards per). This makes for an interesting matchup- USC has a better passing game (249.6 yards per game), but still rely heavily on the run (198.3 yards per). Oregon is fully committed to the run, though, racking up 210.7 yards a contest. Which defense will bend and not break?
While Oregon isn't as good against they run, they're still not bad- if they can for Matt Barkley (barf) to throw it, they'll undoubtedly have some opprotunities to get some picks. He has five interceptions to only seven TDs throwing, while the Ducks defenders have 10 picks (with two pick sixes thrown in). USC's vaunted defense led by saftey Taylor Mays has less than a third of that- only three picks, and no pick sixes. That's dead last in the Pac-10, since Standford has returned one of their three to the house.
Speaking of the house, this game is going to be played in Autzen Stadium on Halloween. Let me say that again. Autzen Stadium. Halloween. USC has a freshman quarterback. In Autzen Stadium. On Halloween. If you couldn't tell, I'm betting that Oregon will have a sizeable homefield advantage.
Both teams know what's a steak here. For USC, it's their last chance to really impress people and try to gain some ground on Texas. Their final game of the season is the only other one against a currently ranked team (#22 Arizona). Oregon also wants to reach a BCS bowl. And while the human voters probably won't put them in the national championship, even if their only loss is to undefeated Boise State, you never know when Florida, Bama, Texas, Cincy, or Iowa will go the way of the Choke-er, Hokies.
USC hasn't looked great at times this year, and I expect that this game will be a 60-minute version of that. Oregon is the hotter team, and their defense has gotten BETTER as the year goes on, not worse. I say damn the experts and listen to common sense! Oregon beat Washington, Washington beat USC. Oregon lost to an undefeated #8 Boise State team in Boise. USC lost to Washington, the 3-5 powerhouse. In case you forgot.
So, IMHO, Halloween plays a trick on USC and the Ducks and the crowd in Autzen Stadium get a nice treat, as the Ducks embarass the Trojans 35-17.